2018–2028 MRO Market Forecast by MRO Segment

Special Feature: Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2018 - 2028

The commercial air transport MRO market will revolve around the growth and changes of the global fleet. The total MRO spend in 2018 is expected to be $77.4 billion. It will rise to $91.9 billion by 2023, representing a 3.5 percent CAGR over the five-year period. The growth rate will increase modestly to 4.5 percent annually in the second half of the forecast period. Over the full 10-year period, the global air transport MRO market will grow on average four percent annually, rising to $114.7 billion by 2028.Airframe maintenance will continue its trend of lower unit costs, driven primarily by heavy maintenance visit intervals stretching to 12 years. This is possible through the increased use of composites and hybrid alloys in new-generation aircraft, providing better fatigue and corrosion resistance than in previous generations. Engines, while much more fuel-efficient, are operating at ever higher temperatures and pressures, resulting in more expensive shop visits to restore and replace increasingly exotic and expensive materials—hence, the 4.9 percent average annual growth rate in engine MRO. There is little change expected in the relative mix of component and line MRO spend over the forecast period.

The above analysis is an excerpt from the Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2018 - 2028.

Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2018 - 2028

These are heydays for the commercial aviation industry as well as businesses supporting it from the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector. Rising demand for air travel is keeping production lines at aircraft, engine, and component manufacturers busy and setting records. Lower oil prices, along with the willingness of airlines to spend on upkeep, are resulting in delayed retirements of older jets, which in turn provide more business for the MRO industry because of their additional servicing needs.

The swelling demand continues to drive expansion of the global fleet. Where in our 2017–2027 forecast projected annual growth averaging 3.4 percent, our current outlook ratchets up that yearly increase to 3.7 percent. Inevitably, all this spells more business for the major aircraft manufacturers, pushing production rates to levels never seen before for commercial aircraft.

By 2028, our forecast projects the worldwide fleet will total 37,978 aircraft, up from the 2018 total of 26,307. Narrow-body aircraft will be the biggest beneficiary of this expansion, increasing from about 56 percent of the fleet in 2018 to 66 percent in 2028 thanks to operating costs, range, and capabilities that allow them to encroach on territory once reserved for wide-bodies.

About the Report

Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary 2018–2028 marks our firm’s 18th assessment of the 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. We’re proud to say that the annually produced research, along with our Airline Economic Analysis (AEA), has become a staple resource of aviation executives—whether in companies that build aircraft, fly them, or work in the aftermarket, as well as for those with financial interests in the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.

This research focuses on airline fleet growth and related trends affecting aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply. The outlook reveals significant changes that are important to understand when making business decisions and developing long-term plans.

Analytical topics covered include:

  • Economic GDP and traffic data (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) by geographic region and specific countries
  • Historical financial performance (load factors vs return on invested capital, jet fuel spot prices, industry profitability)
  • In-service fleet, retirements, orders, conversions by aircraft class (wide-body, narrow-body, regional jet, and turboprop)
  • Global aircraft fleet forecast and regional fleet growth rates
  • MRO market forecast by segment (line, component, engine, airframe) and aircraft platform spend
  • Forecast sensitivity analysis

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