2018–2028 MRO Market Forecast by Aircraft Class

Special Feature: Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2018 - 2028

Globally, MRO spend related to narrow-body and wide-body aircraft will comprise $69.2 billion of the $77.4 billion total, with regional jets and turboprops combining for an MRO spend of just $8.2 billion. For 2018, narrow-bodies make up 57 percent of the fleet and 45 percent of MRO market share. Wide-bodies, on the other hand, make up 20 percent of the global fleet, but represent more than 44 percent of the MRO expenditures because the aircraft are more maintenance-intensive and more complex. Oliver Wyman forecasts a significant shift in spending away from regional jets and turboprops and toward narrow-body aircraft over the next 10 years. Narrow-body MRO spend will see a $27.6 billion increase to $62.6 billion by 2028, with overall market share rising to nearly 55 percent. This share is taken from every aircraft class, as wide-body market share will drop to 38 percent, totaling $43.9 billion, and regional jets and turboprops will combine for seven percent of MRO spend totaling $8.2 billion.

The above analysis is an excerpt from the Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2018 - 2028.

Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast 2018 - 2028

These are heydays for the commercial aviation industry as well as businesses supporting it from the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector. Rising demand for air travel is keeping production lines at aircraft, engine, and component manufacturers busy and setting records. Lower oil prices, along with the willingness of airlines to spend on upkeep, are resulting in delayed retirements of older jets, which in turn provide more business for the MRO industry because of their additional servicing needs.

The swelling demand continues to drive expansion of the global fleet. Where in our 2017–2027 forecast projected annual growth averaging 3.4 percent, our current outlook ratchets up that yearly increase to 3.7 percent. Inevitably, all this spells more business for the major aircraft manufacturers, pushing production rates to levels never seen before for commercial aircraft.

By 2028, our forecast projects the worldwide fleet will total 37,978 aircraft, up from the 2018 total of 26,307. Narrow-body aircraft will be the biggest beneficiary of this expansion, increasing from about 56 percent of the fleet in 2018 to 66 percent in 2028 thanks to operating costs, range, and capabilities that allow them to encroach on territory once reserved for wide-bodies.

About the Report

Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary 2018–2028 marks our firm’s 18th assessment of the 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. We’re proud to say that the annually produced research, along with our Airline Economic Analysis (AEA), has become a staple resource of aviation executives—whether in companies that build aircraft, fly them, or work in the aftermarket, as well as for those with financial interests in the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.

This research focuses on airline fleet growth and related trends affecting aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply. The outlook reveals significant changes that are important to understand when making business decisions and developing long-term plans.

Analytical topics covered include:

  • Economic GDP and traffic data (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) by geographic region and specific countries
  • Historical financial performance (load factors vs return on invested capital, jet fuel spot prices, industry profitability)
  • In-service fleet, retirements, orders, conversions by aircraft class (wide-body, narrow-body, regional jet, and turboprop)
  • Global aircraft fleet forecast and regional fleet growth rates
  • MRO market forecast by segment (line, component, engine, airframe) and aircraft platform spend
  • Forecast sensitivity analysis

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