World Airline Seats Have Increased 4.8% Per Year
Scheduled Airline Seats, 2015–2019
The above analysis is an excerpt from the Global Fleet & MRO Market Forcast 2019 - 2029.
Global Fleet & MRO Market Forcast 2019 - 2029
The aviation industry and the businesses that support it are experiencing another year of unparalleled growth, thanks to an expansion in the global population able to afford air travel. Rising incomes and consumer spending are pushing passenger travel to record levels and fueling the largest year-over-year increase of the in-service fleet since 2008.
Looking ahead a decade, air travel demand is anticipated to be equally robust, with an additional 200 million people expected to enter the middle class across the planet. Growth in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) will regularly exceed the annual expansion of gross domestic product (GDP) in most economies—particularly in high-growth areas like China and India. Even amid global trade tensions, the projections for commercial air travel remain optimistic across all regions of the world.
About the Forecast
Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary 2019–2029 marks our firm’s 19th assessment of the 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. We’re proud that this annually produced research, along with our Airline Economic Analysis (AEA), has become a staple resource of aviation executives—whether in companies that build aircraft, fly them, or work in the aftermarket, as well as for those with financial interests in the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.
This research focuses on airline fleet growth and related trends affecting aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply. The outlook reveals significant changes that are important to understand when making business decisions and developing long-term plans.
Analytical topics covered include:
- Economic GDP and traffic data (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) by geographic region and specific countries
- Historical financial performance (load factors vs return on invested capital, jet fuel spot prices, industry profitability)
- Passenger and cargo traffic, and airport infrastructure growth in select markets
- In-service fleet, retirements, orders, conversions by aircraft class (wide-body, narrow-body, regional jet, and turboprop)
- Global aircraft fleet forecast and regional fleet growth rates
- MRO market forecast by segment (line, component, engine, airframe) and aircraft platform spend
- Forecast sensitivity analysis based on economic health, traffic, fuel prices, and interest rates
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